You think the hedge funds selling SPY options don't have this priced in already? Of course, you can still make money on this bet, just like you can win money at a roulette table, but unless you think have some special insight that hedge/quant funds don't have, buying options should be negative EV.
I’d argue that it is very normal for hedging to be giving up expected value in return for a reduction in volatility of returns.
If you have a lot of exposure to the market already one could say not buying the option is more akin to roulette.
Of course not, but it is a hedge, is it not? What would be your preferred hedge in this scenario?
If you buy a put you are making a bet that realized volatility will exceed implied volatility. This may or may not happen and there’s no way to predict the future.