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The optimism is based on the successes so far, some of which are described in this article. Scientists have made progress here.

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no they havent . success so far is totally meaningless and doesn't imply any sort of upward slope .

The researchers in the field disagree with you. Look at conferences like NeurIPS and ICLR to see a steady stream of incremental progress in this area.

trust the researchers bro

What would real progress look like?

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