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A few years ago they couldn't do fingers properly

Today they can't even understand the nuances of Robin Williams in Good Will Hunting.

What won't they be able to do two years from now?

They will never be able to actually have human experience. I think that's the point. It's not that they won't be able to pretend that they have had human experience, it is that they just haven't and cannot ever do it. It is never futile to do what a computer (or even another human) can do better than you, because your experience does matter.

TBF humans will never have the experience of what it's like to be an AI by those rules either. The confident assertions about the nature of consciousness so many make despite still having no real idea what it is astound me.

But personally, I'm more optimistic. I'll bet it's more likely the AIs figure out consciousness down the road and explain it to us than the other way around. The limit to their intelligence seems effectively unbounded so far and they're starting to creep past us here and there. The AIs will have the advantage of being able to observe consciousness from the outside that we lack.

Just another couple of years and a few more trillion, and the whole world’s semiconductor and data output and it’ll be useful. Trust me bro.

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