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Comment by akmarinov | Hacker News Reader

Sooo both OpenAI and Anthropic going bankrupt soon?

If they can’t freely sell access to their models and Chinese models catch up to Opus 4.8/GPT 5.5 in 6-8 months - then why pay OAI/Anthropic at all?

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Worse: we'd be paying US companies to train models we'll never be able to use.

It will be much harder for Chinese models to close the gap than it is to keep the historical 6-9 months behind. Their models' performance are heavily propped up on distillation runs. The capital going to their frontier labs is 10x-100x smaller than US frontier labs.

Harder, but they’ll get access one way or another. And once on par - it’s game over

Basically the signal is that the total market for any US AI company is capped at however big the US market is. As non-US AI converges to Opus 4.8 level parity, whatever is still non-US consumer base shrinks towards zero.

The end game is tokens will be a commodity - doesn’t matter which provider you use.

How many people are going to buy a $10-20K rigs to run these open models?

The calculus is changing for non US, non Chinese users.

Hypothetically if the US continues to restrict their frontier models and adds a ban on Chinese/open models then it would to obliterate services like open router. American cloud companies would presumably be blocked from selling capacity to run banned models in this situation.

That causes a shortage of compute/gpu resources internationally and an oversupply of non-revenue generating hardware in the US.

If that happens then what percent of your salary is worth securing this compute worth? How much does the cost of a data centre chip change? It’s difficult to say.

Small businesses can easily buy them.

Why would they? Today you have datacenters in EU offering Chinese and European models from Deepseek v4 Pro and Mistral Medium down to some Qwen 3.6 35B for effectively peanuts compared to Anthropic.

20K won't buy you a rig for GPT 5.5

Well they don’t provide GPT 5.5 weights but GLM 5.2 is kind if close

You’re talking $100k for entry level hw

Not really, look at this thread to see different options in the comments https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/s/N1OslM0Z8X

You could go as low as $2500 or go crazy the sky being the limit

slow being the operative word. Usable means some minimum level of performance; I wouldn’t want to play a game at less than 60 fps and I wouldn’t want to run a token-inefficient model at less than say 40 tps.

I already have

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