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Comment by slibhb | Hacker News Reader

In the US, unemployment is at 4.3%.

You’ll want the U-6 rate as well for comparison: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

And U-6 is lower than e.g it has been in ALL of 2008-2018? Generally pretty close to historic lows. Not sure what extra information it provides

Well, the difference is ~13 million people when you scale it to US population. (14.7m @ 4.3 vs 27.8m @ 8.1%)

For perspective that's roughly New York, LA, and Las Vegas, OR Vacaville (CA), Clinton (MI), San Angelo (TX), Allen (TX), Tuscaloosa (AL), San Mateo (CA), Tracy (CA), Tyler (TX), Roanoke (VA), Sparks (NV), Spokane Valley (WA), Las Cruces (NM), Rialto (CA), Hesperia (CA), Renton (WA), Bend (OR), Carmel (IN), Longmont (CO), Sandy Springs (GA), Vista (CA), Davenport (IA), San Marcos (CA), New Braunfels (TX), Edinburg (TX), Mission Viejo (CA), League City (TX), Fall River (MA), Kenosha (WI), El Cajon (CA), Fishers (IN), Flint (MI), South Bend (IN), Green Bay (WI), Roswell (GA), Peoria (IL), Boulder (CO), Greeley (CO), Brockton (MA), Waterbury (CT), New Bedford (MA), Richmond (CA), West Palm Beach (FL), Everett (WA), Hillsboro (OR), Centennial (CO), Conroe (TX), High Point (NC), Pompano Beach (FL), Elgin (IL), Antioch (CA), Burbank (CA), Pueblo (CO), Fargo (ND), El Monte (CA), College Station (TX), Richardson (TX), Daly City (CA), Clearwater (FL), Costa Mesa (CA), Downey (CA), West Jordan (UT), Carlsbad (CA), Miami Gardens (FL), Rochester (MN), Murfreesboro (TN), Temecula (CA), Gresham (OR), Victorville (CA), Arvada (CO), Springfield (IL), Independence (MO), West Valley City (UT), Pearland (TX), Abilene (TX), Norman (OK), Vallejo (CA), Berkeley (CA), Ann Arbor (MI), Allentown (PA), Evansville (IN), Olathe (KS), Beaumont (TX), Cambridge (MA), Peoria (AZ), Lansing (MI), Lafayette (LA), Odessa (TX), Athens (GA), Columbia (MO), Manchester (NH), Billings (MT), Hartford (CT), Concord (NC), North Charleston (SC), Meridian (ID), Surprise (AZ), Santa Clara (CA), Fort Collins (CO), Miramar (FL), Charleston (SC), Denton (TX), Coral Springs (FL), Roseville (CA), Pasadena (CA), Warren (MI), Thornton (CO), Kent (WA), Midland (TX), Waco (TX), Carrollton (TX), McAllen (TX), Sterling Heights (MI), Columbia (SC), Gainesville (FL), Cedar Rapids (IA), New Haven (CT), Stamford (CT), Elizabeth (NJ), Topeka (KS), Kent (WA), Victorville (CA), Syracuse (NY), AND Dayton (OH).

So, ya know, like a couple people.

Meaningless considering gig work counts against unemployment, but has none of the benefits traditionally associated with employment. It's 14.3%-19% if you include full time gig work and %30.7-35.4% if you include part time gig workers.

It's ridiculous to say that the "economy works" or is doing well if 99% of people deliver pizzas. Most of the wealth created doesn't come from pizza delivery if people aren't participating in the industries that generate value then they might as well be outside of the labor market entirely.

It's shocking that people don't understand the history or purpose of the unemployment metric. If someone living in a rural town moves to an industrialized city and they cannot find a job then the industrial machine needs more capital allocated to it. Currently we've built a slave economy were low tiers service high tier people. It's a very easy trap to fall into for obvious reasons, but it stalls growth.

That has nothing to do with the fact that the hiring market for software engineers sucks right now.

Employment numbers don't tell the whole history. You may lose your job as a SWE making 200k/y and to control the hemorrage of your savings, accept a part time contractor role that nets you a fraction of what you used to get, without benefits, or you can start driving for uber, door dash, etc. All of it will make you count as employed.

That's often called "occupational mismatch" and it smuggles in a normative claim that someone always deserves a job matching their prior title, education, or salary. Labor statistics do not and should not assume that.

Also in my experience part time contractor roles are awesome. <20hr/wk = low stress, most of my big purchases like computer hardware were deductible business expenses, and the coveredca subsidy let me get a very good health plan (courtesy of all the full time guys who bleed taxes and get zero subsidies in return)

The point is, I hope you agree that normal people may find a labor market where should them lose their jobs, there's a heightened chance they will find themselves in a situation of "occupational mimatch" a lit bit stressing and not really the ideal, optimal market under their point of view.

It may be that this perception would be particularly amplified when those persons have some doubt whether they would be able, in any single month, to be able to pay both their mortgage and food with their "occupationally mismatched" new income levels.

Despite the fact that you're probably right when you say the labor statistics should not assume that those people are unemployed, I think you can now appreaciate the fact that for some people, the current labor market is not particularly reassuring no matter what numbers the Department of Labor proclaim for this particular statistics.

This doesn't count those who've given up on looking.

U-3 (unemployment rate) is 4.3% like he said. U-4 (U-3 plus discouraged workers, people who want and are available for work but stopped searching) is 4.6%. Practically the same.

If you want more detailed numbers, go look them up. BLS publishes them.

Unemployment is nearly at historical lows. But don't let data distract you from the same tired "everything is terrible" line that's every other post here.

Pretty massive difference between "being employed" and "being employed with a decent wage". Yeah, there's plenty of low-wage service industry or gig economy work available to take you out of the unemployment statistic -- there's a lot less employment available that enables you to live a decent lifestyle (i.e. live somewhere without 4 roommates or raise a family)

Also doesn't count the underemployed.

Very common for people suddenly laid-off from salaried work to turn to part-time gig work and that immediately removes them from the 4.3% unemployed statistic.

That's U-6 (U-5 plus people involuntarily working part-time). It's 8.1%. Pretty low by historical standards, but not as low as it was 3 years ago (6.9%)

nor those who are driving Uber or doordashing

The folks who made accurate federal numbers were fired some time ago. the current numbers are about as accurate as someone with an active interest in lying about it cares.

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