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I think it's probably more like a year or a year and a half. I don't want to say two years, but it's what I'm actually thinking.

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GLM 5.2 is already between 4.6 Opus 4.7 Opus level based on Artificial Analysis aggregation. 4.6 Opus is about 4 months old at this point, so seems like open source is maybe 4-6 months behind. It could still take a year but seems closer to 6 months.

Artificial Analysis is just as benchmark-maxxed as they come. Aggregating tons of benchmark-maxxing means you're still benchmark-maxxed.

There's simply no replacement for training on more, better tokens, with more parameters. Mythos/Fable was estimated to be closer to 10T parameters than the 800B like GLM 5.2 is.

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