If you assume that open models catch up in 6-12-36 months, then you either assume exponential growth destroying the global economy and probably the world in a few years, or you assume it plateaus and commoditises.

Even if your country prevents access to compute to protect the trillion dollar companies, it’s not going to apply for every country, and as models get better it becomes easier to compete. There’s no way an AI non proliferation treaty will be passed or even enforceable.

GLM 5.2 is already between 4.6 Opus 4.7 Opus level based on Artificial Analysis aggregation. 4.6 Opus is about 4 months old at this point, so seems like open source is maybe 4-6 months behind. It could still take a year but seems closer to 6 months.

They were not saying f Open Spurce Mythos 1.0. They were talking about performance / capability parity in other open source models.

in America, maybe, but all of our adversaries will still have access to them, and continue working on them.