So there are tolls after all and they’re going to make Iran money.
I suppose they may be grateful to have an enemy uniting their people. Though it's not like they lost control of the opposition, even if they've had to kill a few thousand at a time.
They lost old hardware and aging leaders (some were already dying). Now, replaced with fresh and energetic leadership and pipeline for modern tech.
I’m pretty sure the “fresh and energetic leadership” won’t enjoy their positions if hostilities resume, which seems likely.
Assume the leadership of both Iran and the US are kleptocrats who both have motivations to have oil prices high and people dependent on them and it all makes a lot more sense.
The Iranian people, that's a different story.
America bringing destruction and failing to bring freedom from their current tyranny has doubtfully bought us many more friends in Iran.
Too bad the Pan America highway or a Pan-American Railway is but a dream the Chinese probably will get that high speed rail all the way to Europe once Russia and the Ukraine stop fighting, I might add if it wasn’t for the war. There’s a good possibility. It would already be done by now.
Not an issue for those promoted into their places!
There is still a moderate faction in Iran that the IRGC needs an excuse to execute.
Political capital + diplomatic reputation + military reputation + strategic reputation.. and cash.
What would other countries do? If the US's military might is powerless to control Iran, what chance would any other country have here?
Trump's weakness in giving up the illusion of US power certainly would be a disaster for the US, and world trade, but broader implications seem unlikely.
What would Australia do if Iran attacked their embassy? They would kick them out, denying Iran an embassy in Australia. When it comes to this stuff, a tit for tat strategy is generally the common tactic. If you attack peaceful trade ships, then your own trade ships is valid target for retaliation. If you start to threaten ships with ransoms, other nations will do the same.
Invading Iran is a complete different subject compared to boarding trading ships well outside the border of Iran. Historically, a Letter of marque was a very cheap way to manage countries which did not respect your own ships. Some laws are still in the law books regarding how to deal with prize ships, which illustrate how close we are to the time where peaceful traversal of waters was not a given.
One of the biggest trade partner for Iran is China. Will China pay the toll? Will Iran attack their ships? Will China retaliate if they do? If China do not need to pay the toll, which other countries would then be willing to one-sided pay for access to the strait?
This is exactly what Trump tried. The US was boarding Iranian ships thousands of kilometers away. In the end the US still backed down and agreed to an Iranian toll in the MoU.
Iranian ships have been getting boarded for extremely flimsy reasons for over ten years now. That forced them to adapt to it in such a way that they are now far more resilient to it than the rest of the world is.
Revisit Oak Ridge, Tennessee why are the Chinese dusting off old technology from America and running with it?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#Main_f...
It's a problem pretty much only for the US. The US has been humiliated, embarrassed, and made incredibly weak by showing it can neither protect its allies or its core interests, and that it can not project power despite spending massive amounts of money using its fancy weapons that are supposed to be the best and most expensive in the world.
Further, its shown the world that letting the US keep a strategic base in your country is actually a huge problem for the country, and not a benefit at all.
The US had global alliances that made it very strong, its in the process of destroying all that and isolating itself in order to become weaker and poorer.
Nobody else around the world is hurt much by tariffs on the Strait. Just the US due to its massive own-goal by wasting military power on an undefined goal, with vague aspirations it could never achieve with the resources devoted to it, without convincing the US people that ant war was necessary. It put Iranian leadership on death ground without any alternative except to use all their weapons, seemingly completely unaware of decades of US wargaming about the Strait.
It's hard to overstate how much of a disaster this is for the US on every possible angle.