Kingston lists the write cycles as 3000-5000, this would shorten your calculations by at least 20x.
http://media.kingston.com/pdfs/FlashMemGuide.pdf
Also, see this thread:
http://www.raspberrypi.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=21281&...
Edit - The Kingston data is a bit dated but in any case 10000 is probably a better number for cheaper cards.