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Comment by sleepyguy | Hacker News Reader

It's why Trump is pissing himself trying to get a deal. If the straight stays closed, everyone is fucked.

That's not going to help, price spikes are locked in at this point, even if we got a deal this minute. It would be marginaly better simply because it would improve sentiment.

Gosh he's not behaving as if he wants to make a deal.

He does. He's just stuck in between his previous rethoric about the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and his misreading of IRGC capabilities and will.

He can't take a worse deal than the Obama deal he spent years criticizing then personally destroyed, and the Iranians don't seem very inclined to give him anything better.

He wants one.

He's just never really been good at it.

I have been reading that the deal basically includes almost everything Iran has been asking for. Perhaps, the folks around Trump understanding the cliff we are racing for are keeping Trump out of the loop and hope he will just sign something because the pain that is coming has the potential to force a ground war America is not prepared for.

Once Iran closed the Strait, Trump's surrender became inevitable. The rest has been a combination of him slowly coming to terms with the inevitability of that outcome, and buying time to come up with a way to spin the catastrophe as a success.

The only way to spin it as a success is to decouple the US from international news sources. Otherwise everyone will be aware that Iran is spinning it as an Iranian victory, and enough people will ask "well, who actually won?" and look at the actual results. And in that reckoning, Trump will have lost.

Unless... unless the government of Iran falls during the stalling. If they get no oil revenue... maybe? Could it happen?

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