This blog post is based on a paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.14740). The paper is based on a simulated wargame. The wargame is of the author's own design.

The wargame design does not differentiate between ordinary defeat and mutually assured destruction, so of course a player about to use would 'push the button.' That's also believed to be true in real life.

Results based on simulations can be very informative, but we must always be careful to check how well the simulation framework represents reality.