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You can only tell which part of the S-Curve you're on in retrospect. It's not something you can tell while you're experiencing it. Both scenarios of AI maxing out or continuing to improve are both likely.

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That is not true. You can tell you are on the latter part of the S-Curve you are on, if the rate of change of capabilities has decreased compared to before. That is not what we are seeing right now. The rate of change is increasing, or is at best, stable.

you compare the derivative yesterday, you measure the derivative today. difference between them is the jerk. It tells you where you are on the S-curve

It's only in retrospect that you know the level of filtering required to find this S curve trend among the noisy perturbations.

Just like people trying to time the market with "technical analysis". It is extremely easy to find whatever pattern you are looking for. A lot harder to accurately distinguish predictive power from fantasy.

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