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Comment by vor_ | Hacker News Reader

> 3 years max. Maybe 5 if you are lucky.The models will continue to improve. The exponential gains in compute efficiency that have been ongoing for 70+ years will continue and that will result in even smarter models. There are dramatic hardware changes in the pipeline.

I remember hearing that 10 years ago about self-driving.

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60 years ago about flying cars, 40 years ago about cold fusion, the list is long.

We need a lot more basic research into LLMs and also a lot cheaper hardware.

The current batch of LLMs will turn a lot of fields upside down, but not to the tune of $3tn or whatever crazy amounts are being invested right now.

I mean basically you and I are effectively living in parallel universes. Waymo has been running for years, and there are other services including in China and Tesla which is not 100% there but actually very effective.

And the thing he complained about is fixable with a web search, and AI does programming and office work today. So, it's already here. It's just a question of degrees.

Waymo heavily relies on real humans to get their robots unstuck. They also rely on extremely detailed mapping data, which is why they're only in a few cities.

Tesla has been a couple years away from FSD for, what, like ten years now?

If you scrape off the glitter, you'll find a lot more duct tape and wire than you think.

"Just 2 more weeks guys, and AI will be able to do everything!"

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