I will go drive my old German car now, and get a bit drunk in a bottle of Nebbiolo while listening to some French lunatic with a piano.
Enjoy your trip to Mars and your self driving toy cars. The world is off its rails. Bit time.
It always boggles my mind when someone who is middle to maybe upper middle class tries to time the market or buys/sells stocks in reaction to random news like this. At best you're going to be up maybe 50% on this trade, and you're going to pay commission to your broker, and may even need to pay taxes. At worst you're going to be down a lot and still pay the broker.
A conservative 10% return on a 2 million dollar investment is a very nice 200 000. A conservative 10% return on a 20 000 dollar investment is just 2000.
If you're not born rich in this world, there are but a few doors that are open to you to try to improve your station in life. Hard work will never help you out of the hole. Not even dangerous work. Nor will an education. At least with high risk investment you have a fair chance, and at worst you loose your savings and are back where you started. You're not going to lose your life or your limbs.
> at worst you loose your savings
This is a pretty optimistic take on how much money people who live paycheck to paycheck can actually save. I'd probably suggest that poor people with savings start a business over investing.
What I'm talking about are things like being able to own your own home without being born into it or getting it from inheritance. That is a big gamble trying to do with just hard and smart work.
> I'd probably suggest that poor people with savings start a business over investing.
I'd like to adjust that: Starting a business is a better option than hard work, because with your own business you can actually get a good return on working hard and smart. But unless you're a business genius, it's a good idea at one point to invest your proceeds into the stock market rather than investing all back into your own business.
I don’t disagree with your basic idea, but not being able to articulate alternatives so that you know when they make sense is going to hurt you.
We are possibly seeing a major failure mode for passive for the first time.
There’s a lot of advocacy for passive investing because it’s practically the only good option for retail investors. Managed funds can actually afford to advertise.
There are problems with passive investing becoming such a large portion of public investment, it is practically corporate welfare. But when the alternatives are at or around 2 and 20, with most performing worse than index funds, it’s irrational for the average person to do anything but passive investing.
> because it’s practically the only good option for retail investors.
If you’re hearing about something, it’s because someone organized that message
> Managed funds can actually afford to advertise.
Have you seen how much money and corporate influence Vanguard and black rock have?
> with most performing worse than index funds
At the same risk level?
If it's the first time it's failing then there's really nothing anyone can do to prepare for it, and I certainly wouldn't recommend laypeople to try to time the market.
In this story we determined that S&P is going to choose a path different that other ETFs. Does that mean these ETFs differ in quality? Which should you pick?
Mutual funds aren't bad but the average person won't realize that they're paying a percentage of their assets, not a flat fee, to the manager. If the fund class can beat the market by more than that percentage then it could be worth it, otherwise pick an ETF that has the risk profile you can tolerate. But the first step would be to understand that.
So, no weapons for Ukraine?
And I will enjoy my trip to Mars, when there are nice hotels there. But it's gonna be a while.
It's a good time to be alive.
(I obviously don't know your circumstances but am commenting about a general phenomenon I see parroted by many professionally successful SWEs who seem to take glee in being ignorant of economics/finance while enjoying the spoils.)
What is naive in a completely different set of ways. We really don't need more instability coming from your side.
Electricity is overhyped anyway. Nikola Tesla is a scammer with his crazy ideas. Not to mention the scam that is Bell's telephony. Electricity is causing a copper shortage for us common folk. This electricity bubble is built only on hype, and will pop soon enough!