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Comment by malicka | Hacker News Reader

> crime rate hikes.

No, not really. Broadly, immigration has no effect on crime-rates. In case-study after case-study, it’s shown immigration has little to no impact on crime-rates. This was even disproven after the height of the Syrian refuge crisis! But media likes sensationalist reporting, so public perception doesn’t match the statistics.

> cultural demise.

Meaningless, also created by the media. If you listen to the media, Britain is under the fierce grip of Sharia law, enforced by… the 6% of the population that is Muslim. Yes, yes, how scary. I guess English culture was pretty weak, to meet its demise from such a meager blip.

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>Broadly, immigration has no effect on crime-rates.

This just isn't true. There are a lot of studies that purport this. There are also a lot of studies that purport the opposite. A quick look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_crime shows a bit of the field here.

The details get really important when talking about this. Details like:

- immigrant crime rates are often compared to non-immigrant rates, as if the native-born are a single bloc, rather than distinct segments

- "immigrants" treated as a single bloc

- immigrant crime getting controlled for by age, gender, income, and education --- which is cold comfort if the bulk of your immigration is poor uneducated young men

- first-gen immigrants, if immigrating to work, often have lower crime rates. This effect disappears with second-generation. But when they do crime, it is counted as native crime, rather than immigrant crime. That...doesn't quite cleave reality at the joints.

- labor law violations, tax evasion, etc., often not counted as "crime."

Don’t pretend the people you are replying to care about actual facts. It’s all feelings and xenophobia (or worse) for them

For what it worth, your comment have just feeling and xenophobia. No facts whatsoever.

Immigration HAS an effect: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-crime-figures-migrants-refugee...

The thing is very simple: I am really not afraid of police in Germany. Worst thing that can happen is spending a night in jail. In other countries the police can shoot you or seriously beat you up. So basically there is no police. And the jail… well it’s all inclusive hotel compared to other countries. Deportation is anyway very unlikely. So what should stop me from doing bad things?

For one, this article doesn’t claim that immigration increases overall crime.

Secondly, the article hints at a sampling bias we have run into before, during the Syrian refugee crisis: Immigrants are not more likely compared to their peers.

If you compare a block that is predominately young men to the general population, they commit more crime – because they are young men, not because they are immigrants.

A proper statistical comparison looks at the sub-demographics, comparing immigrant and native folk to their peers in age and sex.

Compare 18-year old men from Algeria to native 18 year-old men, and they aren’t any more likely to commit crime. But between 18-year old men and the general population? Well, duh, because one group has more young men in it.

Which is to say: No, immigrants aren’t more likely to commit crimes.

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