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Comment by henry2023 | Hacker News Reader

henry2023·

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX.

So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

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> So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

Risky, IMO. I've been closing my TSLA shorts because I think he'll just use spacex stock to buy tsla at a very overvalued price, just to wipe out all the shorts.

Fair, but Tesla is valued at 1.6T while SpaceX is going to start at 1.75T.

If SpaceX ever has the ability to buy Tesla in an all Stock deal at a high Tesla price then SpaceX would need to expand faster than Tesla which is precisely my trade.

How do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?

Even if it's expected most can't do the trade because we're Pre-IPO.

Also, realized move always carries more value than expected because of uncertainty.

More like: why would you think it's not already priced in. Answer: I'm super special!

I'm not special, this is a pretty basic idea so there's no edge here but that doesn't mean there's no trade.

Also, you'd be surprised at how simple the most profitable Quant strategies are.

Musk's plan is to merge Tesla and SpaceX into one company.

New name: Stark Industries?

No, something more original more relatable: X Technologies. /s

It will unironically be named X, because Musk has an obsession with the letter since the PayPal days.

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