I'm not even sure that 1 in 8 people I know would qualify as a knowledge worker, let alone a knowledge worker that might profoundly benefit from on-the-horizon AI. And I'm in a highly skewed population.
Most people I've met -- and again, in a pretty darn skewed sample globally -- see $65/mo as a lot of money to spend on technology of any kind and can't think of anything much they need from "a personal knowledge worker in their pocket". I don't know a single person in real life who remains excited about AI at all, and only a few software engineers who feel it'd be worth that much.
Everybody seems to be mostly confident with the "knowledge productivity" in their personal and professional life and a pretty skittish about spending in today's economy. Most would be excited about a magic new robot that affordably saved them from unwanted physical labor and drudgery, but nobody needs much real help making appointments or filling out forms or whatever.
That's not to say I won't be proved wrong some day, with some further innovations in AI products, but global-scale demand isn't waiting for anything that's been released so far.
There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life.
Something else that might be useful would be local single purpose AI agents who’s remit is to help you with one specific task, but I don’t think that’s what the people building those expensive data centers want to sell to the market.
What's the actual TAM for premium tv subscriptions though? Unlike free models which are keep improving, you can't get premium tv for free. Also they are actually competing with the total subscription price a person is willing to pay for a year.
> There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life.
Exactly, free models are good enough for these tasks.
I just don't see how b2c is a large enough market to ask average Joe to cough up hundreds per year when there are free stuff everywhere. B2b is another story
27% of the world's workforce is in agriculture (contrast to the US where it is 1-2%). 15% in manufacturing.
A lot of people work in "services" (especially in high income nations, where it's roughly three quarters) and some of those are knowledge workers... but a huge number of them are nail technicians or hairdressers or bartenders (etc etc).