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I don't think AGI was ever a serious endeavour, just something the labs talked up to grab attention.

I am willing to bet a Twix we'll look back on that stuff in 2 years with a lot of embarrassment

The high-risk side of that bet would need to win more like a lifetime supply of Twix. But in a post-scarcity nirvana, everyone already has that. So sure, you're on at even money. See you in two years.

Theres no reason to believe, based on recent trends, that AI would lead us to a post-scarcity world, even if it could do all of our jobs better and cheaper.

I'll wager a hypersled of my Twix against your next three rations of gruel. But I think I'm done betting after this one.

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