But it's more like, still open to debate but sounds likely: how long until vibe coding is powerful enough to generate Photoshop alternatives quickly?
So yeah I think people would concede the point that vibe coding isn't quite all there yet; but is it there at the size of a function or module or collection of small pieces of code? Definitely.
The other part of the conversation is about how AI-assisted coders may be doing other things than creating a Photoshop alternative. Maybe many of us don't need Photoshop and use something like Gimp instead. Maybe people feel existing software like Photoshop or its alternatives are "sufficient enough" so they're building something else instead. Maybe the people who use Photoshop lack incentives or skills to vibe code an app themselves, and maybe the people who don't use it aren't interested in creating a Photoshop alternative.
Maybe there are other bottlenecks than just code generation that are holding back more alternatives being created: where to post code after you create it, when there is more "noise" online; of getting ideas for things to create in general, which might be a problem independent of AI; of other economic and social conditions that have people focused on solving other problems currently rather than creating a Photoshop alternative.
So I think the point stands that we don't have the expected Photoshop alternatives currently, but I think we will probably see more of that in time, and we might also see AI be used in other ways than may be expected (another comment for example suggested maybe people might skip Photoshop altogether and just use AI to generate photos or effects; I can appreciate the idea that this doesn't replace how a lot of people use Photoshop, but on the other hand I can also think of some instances where it might for some people).