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Comment by mcmcmc | Hacker News Reader

Can you provide examples of prediction markets that aren’t gambling?

When you have information/know the outcome in advance.

So it’s still gambling for the other participants who don’t have that insider knowledge then. If one person at a blackjack table is counting cards, does that make it not gambling for everyone else?

I don't really think so, because if you don't have information in prediction markets, you are the patsy.

Gambling is just hoping probability comes up in your favor. You'll lose over the long term, but you could win an individual bet. Neither is under your control or can be influenced by any "inside" information. The dice don't care what you know or don't know, and bets don't change the payout.

Granted some types of "gambling" such as horse racing or sports in general are more like a prediction market than a true bet against odds, where knowing something that the general betting public doesn't know could be used to your advantage.

Ah, insider trading! Or playing a rigged game and then taking money from people not in on the game. So fraud!

You can come upon such information by other means

In sports? Perhaps you just observe a player get injured in a car accident and bet based on that.

The ones where you have insider information.

It's a good question, actually now that I think of it.

Obviously, insider trading, but as a society we have long decided that this is evil.

And if we compare markets where I am ready to put my money where my mouth is, then this actually is called gambling. Just not a game of chance but rather game of skill.

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