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Oh, you mean somewhere it is tracking the statistical likelihood of the output. Yeah I buy that, although I think it just tends towards the most likely output given the context that it is dragging along. I mean it wouldn’t deliberately choose something really statistically unlikely, that’s like a non sequitur.

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Well, it's not tracking. As it predicts each token it is sampling from a probability distribution -- that's what the matrix multiplies are for. It gets a distribution over all tokens and then picks randomly according to that distribution. How flat or how spiky that distribution is tells you how confident it is in its answer.

But it then throws that distribution away / consumes it in the next token calculation. So it's not really tracking it per se.

From its point of view what does it mean "to know".

Is it the token (or set of tokens) that are strictly > 50% probable or is it just the highest probability in a set of probabilities?

While generating bullshit is not ideal for a lot of use cases you don't want your premier chat bot to say "I don't know" to the general public half the time. The investment in these things requires wide adoption so they are always going to favour the "guesses".

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