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They have to speedrun boiling the frog because the capital expenditure is insane. Remains to be seen just how fast you can boil a frog before the frog notices

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Disagree. Most businesses of size are going to enterprise agreements which are all on demand rates. Those rates have not been changing other than the underlying cost to the model API rates fluctuating. You could make argument they are secretly using that has the price lever.

With volume enterprises can already negotiate lower token rates. I don’t see a boiling the frog situation.

They will still need to increase costs for enterprise to be profitable, they're just going to be more greasy about it. Claude 5 will cost 20% more but not be 20% better, more shenanigans with "oh no we had a bug in our cache system :^)", or this gem from the current enterprise pricing page: "Opus 4.7 uses a new tokenizer... may use up to 35% more tokens for the same fixed text".

Anecdotally my work is already pivoting from "use as many tokens as possible" to "try and use a dumber model if you can because the best ones are too expensive".

Imo the frogs have already noticed

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