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They will just pay the toll.

It's possible, in the short term, but eventually the only oil flowing thru the Strait of Hormuz will be Iranian oil, and perhaps not even that. Give countries enough time and they'll rather invest in building a way around Iran than giving them money for passage thru international waters.

The toll will be just a bit under what it would cost to divert the supply.

Well even today you have the UAE and Qatar warning them not to do this. It’s likely to me that the fighting won’t stop until the situation is different, even if the US were to pull out today.

They might support it in spirit, but an actual invasion of the US would be pretty difficult to pull off.

I can see sanctions though, maybe a re-shuffling of alliances where China becomes the world's default Adult In The Room.

Or they finally tell Trump to fuck off as he as no tariff leverage any more as their economies are cooked anyway?

It is funny watching economies like Japan -- where their new prime minister was fluffing Trump like crazy -- get fully screwed.