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If you listen to people on HN you could think AI is not increasing productivity or is even having a net negative effect.

I think the reality is different.

In this thread I saw the resume of an engineer affected by this Cloudflare layoff. In the resume he claimed that adopting opencode in his workflow, he shipped an integration in half the time it took peers without AI assistance for similar projects.

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I’m sitting in an airport after spending a week with a client. They’ve killed off one of their enterprise saas subscriptions with an internal ai assisted effort and are looking to kill more. Granted, they are extremely competent but software isn’t their business. There may be something to the saaspocolypse.

I've seen non-tech people building internal tooling that engineering just never had time to get to. Small/lean companies are leveling up with AI, and they aren't carrying the salary overhead of the big companies. The big companies are going to have to get that much more productive in order to compete and/or they are going to have to cut staff.

Shipping is just a milestone. We all know that "AI" can produce code much faster than any human.

Productivity should be measured over time and take into account the cost of maintenance, reliability, amount of issues, etc.

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