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Comment by noitpmeder | Hacker News Reader

Realistically though, with the demographics as they are, aren't these young men just throwing dice to gamble against and take the money of other young men? Isn't this a 0 sum game?

Or is it more young men vs the establishment where the establishment wins the vast majority of the time but occasionally a young dude makes the right longshot bet?

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It's a negative sum game when you account for the house rake.

> Or is it more young men vs the establishment where the establishment wins the vast majority of the time but occasionally a young dude makes the right longshot bet?

Seems like the latter - except that not only describes how people perceive gambling, but the entire economy considering startups, silicon valley, the current crop of tech billionaires and how they made their fortunes, etc.

So, why not gamble on crypto, NFTs, or prediction markets? Might as well go for the longshots since everything is a longshot anyway

A poor person paying $5.00 for an odds–adjusted $4.99 lottery ticket a couple dozen times in their life is likely not making her worst investment. And if she does win, it is hard to argue against the wisdom of it.

The gamblers, however, will see a future where they have paid $5.00 for a $0.03 ticket and still won the lottery a couple dozen times in a row because they deserve it so they will buy all tickets they can right now ending with 3 —because that's important.

Even when you think you have a legitimate insight so the book is mispriced for your actual odds, you should consider the risk.

Risk management is foremost.

What happens if I lose the almost certainly sure bet?

This may come as a surprise to you, but in the real world, there are not few people whose business is making you think you have an edge on your "long shot".

It's both

I mean you could be describing society as it already existed. It is what itself capitalism promotes, gambling just seems a bit more direct. When 99.9% of people apply for a job, they are directly competing against other workers in a zero sum game. Maybe a few years down the line they might open up more jobs so over long enough time spans its not zero sum, but for the person seeking a job at that very moment, it is zero sum. Our economy is zero sum in the short term, its not like people can go freeze themselves in cryostasis and wait a few decades for prospects to be better or the economy to expand, they either earn money now, or they throw that opportunity cost into the trash to never be returned.

> Maybe a few years down the line they might open up more jobs so over long enough time spans its not zero sum

Also, everybody benefits from a society that chooses qualified people for a position, and gives everybody an opportunity to get a job. But that is also something that shows over time and many processes, and it is harder to see in the moment.

Nepotism is the zero-sum version of applying for a job. Only the power to take away from others is accounted, no qualification required just raw power. Which nepo-baby gets the government contract, the board position, etc. is a zero-sum game and participants behave like what it is. Betrayal, lies, etc. is part of that game.

>Our economy is zero sum in the short term

Um, no, it’s not. It’s notoriously hard to estimate exactly but annual consumer surplus in the US alone is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars.

So if I come up with a billion dollar invention, does the money just poof into existence? No, that money has to come from other peoples pocket and will no longer be spent on those other things if I sell and collect. Over long time spans no it isn't zero sum, but in anything time that isn't measured in many years, it most definitely is zero sum for all purposes. And since people can't just check out from the economy without losing money, the fact that the economy could be larger in 10 years doesn't make a damn bit of difference to someones right at this moment.

Monopoly isn't a zero sum game, and yet within every turn there is a maximum zero-sum amount of money available in play that can be utilized. And the fact that 5x more money might be on the board 20 turns later doesn't make a bit of difference in what I or anybody else can spend or earn during our turn right now.

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