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Comment by stringfood | Hacker News Reader

I've been told that a recession is coming since 2009, when I started investing - there has never been one since then despite all the dire predictions - therefore, my investments are safe

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As the saying goes, "Macroeconomists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions."

> there has never been one since then

There was one in 2020, granted it was the shortest on record.

The government is very decided on not letting one happen, or hiding any minor recession. They will throw money at the problem as long as they can.

Have to protect boomers retirement accounts at the cost of future generations

They don't care about boomers, it is the wealth of billionaires that they care about.

If you had started investing 1 year earlier though?

As long as you didn’t sell, and in fact bought more on the way down, you did well. Of course, not everyone’s time horizon works the timing (you might need the money and so sell at a low point), but generally, being in the market pays off.

It kind of depends what we mean. If you're conservatively in the market, invested in the aggregate economy, diversified, and what not, yes, but if you're taking bets on a smaller number of companies you can just lose your money full on. Not every single company recovers from a recession.

That's why if you are a business, the risk of a recession is a real threat. Someone will recapture your market once the recession is over, but will you?

That also means people will lose their jobs, price of goods will rise, the pressure to need to dip into one's savings will increase, forcing many people into cashing out at the worse possible time. If you are someone with that risk, as an individual, a recession is a real threat as well, and you might want to reduce your market exposure beforehand.

I've lived through both 2000 and 2008. They do happen. And typically not when everybody says there will be a recession, but when almost everybody finally agrees there won't be one.

Not that us plebs can do anything about it anyway... :(

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