Comment by Jabbles | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Jabbles | Hacker News Reader

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Eugh. I don't get why anyone wants to read this mindless speculation. What else do your tea leaves tell you?

"many investors were disappointed that Apple wasn’t able to blow through Wall Street’s estimates"

Well, great. Maybe their goat's entrails didn't predict well enough last time, but this time they were wrong the other way. Almost as if it were random - or as if the market had already compensated for their predictions?

There is no new information here. So allow me to share my own totally uninformed opinion about the future of Apple with you.

Apple sells physical devices for a massive profit. No one else has been able to sell phones/tablets for so much. Apple will keep doing that as long as it can, regardless of Google's efforts to undercut. I think Apple will pour more effort (or just marketing effort) into their app store, trying to promote it to developers as the "one you make money in, the one where people will actually spend money on apps". Now I leave it up to you to make quantitative predictions off that.

Yes they have missed their earnings and it is true they have significant revenues.

The problem here is that the stock has been over inflated for a long time due to surpassing analyst estimates year after year due to iphone growth. Investors are realizing the real threat of android that is stealing iphone market share..

Dont forget apple has always been a niche player. Thats how they are able to sell devices with large margins. Previously they were the leader in mobile devices but this has changed. They will never attain the previous level of market share. Investors are not that confident in apple's ability to continue major innovation without steve jobs.

Therefore that means lesser earnings (relative) in the future, which means a correction in their stock price.

The stock has been artificially inflated for too long and this was bound to happen some time.

"The stock has been artificially inflated for too long and this was bound to happen some time."

Actually, Apple's P/E ratio has been fairly modest for a long time, especially compared to other tech companies that don't rake in as much cash. Microsoft's P/E is nearly 15, compared to Apple's 12.

> Apple sells physical devices for a massive profit. No one else has been able to sell phones/tablets for so much. Apple will keep doing that as long as it can, regardless of Google's efforts to undercut.

The article is about Apple's stock price, and I'm not sure you understand how that part works.

Yes, Apple will continue to make billions of dollars every quarter for quite a while, but their stock is likely to drop down significantly in the coming year.

"their stock is likely to..."

Why? Don't just assert that it will do something. Their P/E is 12, so why won't it grow? Why haven't traders seen this "likely" scenario and sold/shorted Apple stock?

Considering their P/E is so low, AAPL is likely undervalued and so their stock is likely to gain in the coming year. A major reason for this current drop is that funds and institutional investors are trying to lock up profits before year end and before any potential rise in capital gains taxes.

Hedge funds and Wall Street are probably heading out the door, taking profit and moving onto the next 'story' to trade.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-15/remember

On the other hand, just last month: "Apple is going to hit $1,000 a share by January 2014, and will hit $2,000 by the end of the decade, according to a report."

http://www.macworld.co.uk/apple-business/news/?newsid=340227...

>but their stock is likely to drop down significantly in the coming year.

Care to put some money on it?

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