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Comment by irldexter | Hacker News Reader

No hedge fund background, fair cop. I'm a software developer who got frustrated with discretionary noise and built something rules-based.

On the bull run, alpha here is measured against SPY, which ran the same period. The claim is relative outperformance, not that we picked a rising tide. The window also includes 2020 and 2022, not great for momentum strategies. Signals that showed near-zero predictive value in statistical validation are zeroed out of the scoring.

Paper trading is already running against live signals. The daily reports are public and free, no subscription needed to check. Methodology is at https://jumpstartsignal.com/how-it-works/ if you want the detail on what's actually being validated.

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Unless you know exactly why paper trading sims are so hard to backrest in practice, it’s silly to make arguments on why your paper trading sim works.

It’s insanely easy to make a trading algo profitable on historical data.

Overfitting on historical data is a real risk and defo a concern (there's been lots of learnings lately). The backtest wasn't naive. Fundamentals used filing dates not period-end dates to avoid look-ahead + scoring was validated out-of-sample using walk-forward testing rather than just optimised in-sample (GA used 5 temporal folds and walk-forward used 25 rolling out-of-sample windows).

One last question - as a percentage of your net worth, how much of your own money have you put into the stock picks generated through this analysis?

I have a feeling I know the answer, but wanted to check.

Well, it's early, so there's only been 2 actionable signals so far; 1 unique ticker SPOTLIGHT and 1 OPPORTUNITY (MONITOR is just a watchlist flag i.e. continue to MONITOR). Am putting in 1K per SPOT/OPP so far. I also maintain ETF and ETC positions (and have good/bad performing stocks since before JSS). So yes, I am putting my money where my mouth is. I have another 10K ready to deploy specifically to this, and other underperforming sources to draw from based on performance.

The question was percentage of net worth :)

That will tell me how confident you are.

$10k out of $500k would say you’re toying around.

$10k of $20k seems like you believe it works.

Those emojis on there take away from any seriousness you are trying to project and smells of AI generated text.

Hmmm, only did one ascii emoji in a different response. An old habit from the early days. Point noted.

Grok is that you?

Nope.

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