There's going to be a day when we look back at $200/mo price tags and say "wow that was cheap".
The breakeven at this price is 6 minutes of productivity per work day for an engineer making $200k.
The breakeven at this price is 6 minutes of productivity per work day for an engineer making $200k.
Are you suggesting that someone making $20k should be spending $200/mo on Claude?
If you pay someone $20,000 for labor, and they save 65 minutes worth of labor per day using a $200/mo Claude subscription, you are better off buying the Claude subscription.
But the specific numbers in my prior comments aren’t really relevant to my point. Adjust for whatever numbers you want.
I've done some napkin math and CC code makes me more efficient when I pay 200/ month, but it wouldn't if I had to pay api prices
The math is highly in favor of us using it at our company and we are paying API pricing. I don’t imagine there’s a lot of people using Claude without getting their money’s worth…?
I would start claude in Yolo mode, tell it keep trying new ideas until it runs out of 1m context. (Every day I am giving it a hint to explore different directions as the sessions before)
Twice a day for a month, fits well into CC max plan.
I guess if I had to pay per token I would still use it but only for tasks where the value is clearer and immediate.
You've got the real insight with this claim.
This is the way the world is moving. Open source isn't even going where the ball is being tossed. There is no leadership here.
You're spot on.
If the cost to deliver a unit of business automation is:
A. $1M with human labor
B. $700k human labor + open source models
C. $500k human labor + $10,000 in claude code max (duration of project)
D. $250k with humans + $200k claude code "mythos ultra"
Your poor college students and hobbyists will be on option "B". But this won't be as productive as evidenced by the human labor input costs.
Option "C" will begin to disappear as models/compute get more expensive and capable.
Option "A" will be nonviable. Humans just won't be able to keep up.
Open source strictly depends on models decreasing their capability gap. But I'm not seeing it.
Targeting home hardware is the biggest smell. It's showing that this is non-serious, hobby tinkery and has no real role in business.
For open source to work and not to turn into a toy, the models need to target data center deployment.
Wanna bet on it?
The real money in this market, though, is going to be made in the C suite, and they don't really care about the model. They don't care if it's open source, closed source, or what it is. They don't want to buy a model. They're interested in buying a solution to their problems. They're not going to be afraid of a software price tag -- any number they spend on labor is far more.
Labor is something like 50%+ of the Fortune 500's operating expenses -- capturing any chunk of this is a ridiculous sum of money.