Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.
(Well that and collusion)
If they had actually been communicating or colluding with each other, they would have put the screws to him, making it harder for OpenAI to assert control over the vast majority of the DRAM market.
Failing that, you'd like to think a regulatory agency somewhere would step in to keep a single player from hosing everybody else, but...
Up until AI there weren't really players being able to gobble 40% of the market so nobody was looking.
I don’t buy it that two of the largest manufacturers of DRAM in the world, from the same country, didn’t know this. Even of you ignore each company’s intelligence teams, that’s also the job of the country’s internal intelligence services, to make sure they know what all companies are doing and then make it so they have the best leverage to gain as much as possible. Both companies would have known “somehow” and played hardball.
By spying?
The companies also do a lot of spying themselves, every bit of info could give them an edge.
You get market signals that the demand is there, you acquire the necessary capital, you spend 5 years to build capacity, but guess what, 5 other market players did the same thing. So now you are doomed, because the market is flooded and you have low cash flow since you need to drop prices to compete for pennies.
Now you cannot find capital, you don't invest, but guess what, neither your competitors did. So now the demand is higher than the supply. Your price per unit sold skyrocketed, but you don't have enough capacity!
Rinse and repeat.
Capitalists claim that this is optimal.
If anything, it shows it's possible for you to arbitrage this and in doing so help "smooth out the cycle."
At least with capitalism you have many different people with different perspectives on the risk making independent bets. That mitigates the more extreme negative outcomes.
We don't even expect companies to plan long-term anymore, it's just moving wealth as fast as possible.
That isn't really a change, very few people could ever have been said to be ideological capitalists. (capitalist is not a word with a hard definition, but I'm considering it a different thing than the more modern pure libertarian zero-regulation ideology)
This is distinct from someone who is a proponent of capitalism as a system, which appears to be the way you are using capitalist. For which I don't blame you.
Because that does not happen exactly as you say for all players. The demand signals will be processed and long-term risk is balanced against short-term gain in a distributed fashion, so not everyone will do the same.
It's more optimal than planned economies until we have AI planned economies with realtime feedback, I guess.
Consumers get cheap goods during oversupply and most inefficient companies get elliminated during bust while consolidation leads to economies of scale.
There is an alternative where legislation dampens this behavior but the short term profits will be lower. Hence the hawks don’t like it.
Potentially. Well meaning and thought out legislation still distorts the markets, possibly making things objectively worse.
That's not what capitalists claim. Capitalists claim communism is responsible for tens, if not hundreds, of millions of death due to famine. And overall miserable ways of life, as if humans were termites deprived of any individualism and any freedom.
Capitalists claim that France importing 500 000 people from the third world each year, out of which only 10% are ever going to work (and these are official numbers) and yet offering them all a safety net is unsustainable. And that that socialism is only going to lead to one thing: running out of taxpayers' money.
Capitalists don't claim they have the best system: what they claim is that they haven't seen a less worse one.
It is unlike a socialist system in that there are signals to read in the first place. What, do socialists claim that failure is optimal when you can't even tell if you've failed?
> Capitalists claim that this is optimal.
Compared to starving under communism coz someone at top got the number wrong, yes. And it only really happens when there are massive, unpredictable market movements and governments not doing their job. Govt should look at the whole thing and just say "no", blame them.
No market system self regulates well enough, and it's government job to file down the edge cases like this. But the revolution happened in country which has two utterly incompetent parties, both in pockets of billionaires, fighting for power, and the clowns from one that won last battle use AI to smokescreen the economic growth their actions cratered