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Assuming that all homes are at equal risk of being burglarized. In practice the neighborhoods I’ve seen are either at much higher risk or much lower risk.

and burglarized homes have higher prob. of being burglarized again, and probabilities don't accumulate but compound, and is the server even in a house?

They didn't imply the box was at their home and that probability is off

If they have good backuos, no worries. Mine is in a locked colo cage in a datacenter, so I'm not worried either.

I definitely do not keep it at home but the thought has crossed me for smaller less demanding boxes.

That’s not how probabilities work.

Imagining a thief walking in and demanding the home's RAM gave me a chuckle though.

Thieves probably look for small stuff like jewelry, cash, laptops, not some big old server.

Or burglars.

yes, this is indeed how probability works. thanks.

>you’ve got an 8.2% chance of having someone walk out with that box.

The chance of being burglarized is not the same as the chance that when you are hit, they decide to take your webserver. Think it through.