considering the scale involved, and the OSINT trend, is it possible that people could monitor and correlate stuff like airplane, or us navy activity to deduce when to enter ?
I saw a tweet about a trader placing an oil bet when they saw two military aircraft turn around on their way to Iran, via transponder. I believe before the deal was announced.
That also sounds easy enough to fake for some plausible deniability.
Just as parallel construction [1] is used by law enforcement to conceal methods and practices no reason to not expect the same for financial gain.
Traders have been using satellite images from around the world for DECADES, it seems more likely to be true than a conspiracy from a insider who actually makes the decision or has first line access to it.
If I have access to expensive real-time satellite imagery, I am not blasting my insights on Twitter.
in fact US army publicly admitting running a disinformation campaign involving flying planes knowing they would be seen by osint in the previous Iran attack from last summer