I have a hard time believing their numbers. If you can pay off a mac mini in 2-4 months, and make $1-2k profit every month after that, why wouldn’t their business model just be buying mac minis?
That's why we don't recommend purchasing a new machine. Existing machine is no cost for you to run this.
Electricity is one cost, but it will get paid off from every request it receives. Electricity is only deducted when you run an inference. If you have any questions, DM me @gajesh on Twitter.
You misunderstood. If the ROI is there, there is enough capital in existence for you to accelerate your profit. So why even deal with the complexity of renting people's hardware when you can do it yourself?
Out of our >3000 currently active Apple Silicon Macs, failures due to non-physical damage are in the single digits per year. Of those, none have been from production systems with 24/7 uptime and continuous high load, which reflects your parenthetical.
Perhaps we haven't met the other end of the bathtub curve yet, but we also won't be retaining any of these very far beyond their warranty period, much less the end of their support life.
It’s three years for Macs, though I believe you can pay annually for longer. Five has never been a thing to my knowledge.
How much though? Say I have three Mac Minis next to each other, one that is completely idle but on, one that bursts 100% CPU every 10 minutes and one that uses 100% CPU all the time, what's the difference on how long the machines survives? Months, years or decades?
That is not at all how modern chips work. Idle chips are mostly powered down, non-idle ones are working and that causes real measurable wear and tear on the silicon. CPU, RAM, NAND all wear and tear measurably with use on current manufacturing processes.
The calculator gives numbers for nearly everything, but I can't obviously see how much space it needs for model storage or how many writes of temp files I should expect if I'm running flat out.
Assuming that getting large chunk of initial investment is just a formality is out of touch with 99% of people reality out there, when it’s actually the biggest friction point in any socio-economical endeavour.
And then there's a hit for overprovisioning in general. If the network is not overprovisioned somewhat, customers won't be able to get requests handled when they want, and they'll flee. But the more overprovisioned it is, the worse it is for compute seller earnings.
I suspect an optimistic view of earnings from a platform like this would be something like 1/8 utilization on a model like Gemma 4. Their calculator estimates my m4 pro mini could earn about $24/month at 3 hours/day on that model. That seems plausible.
Non-VC play (not required until you can raise on your own terms!) and clear differentiation.
If you want to go full-business-evaluation, I would be more worried about someone else implementing same thing with more commission (imo 95% and first to market is good enough).
ie. Does anyone know the payback time for a B100 used just for inference? I assume it’s more than a couple of months? Or is it just training that costs so much?
Prolly gonna make $50 a year tops.
When YouTubers start making videos about it you know it's too late.
As a business owner, I can think of multiple reasons why a decentralized network is better for me as a business than relying on a hyperscaler inference provider. 1. No dependency on a BigTech provider who can cut me off or change prices at any time. I’m willing to pay a premium for that. 2. I get a residential IP proxy network built-in. AI scrapers pay big money for that. 3. No censorship. 4. Lower latency if inference nodes are located close to me.
Running AI inference increases the power draw, and requires certain hardware.
Mining bitcoin increases the power draw, and requires certain hardware.
OP's point thus stands: Bad players will find places to get far cheaper power than the intended audience, and will buy dedicated hardware, at which point the money you can earn to do this will soon drop below the costs for power (for folks like you and me).
Maybe that won't happen, but why won't that happen?
You - Darkbloom - Operator - Darkbloom - you, vs
You - Provider - you
---
On the censorship point - this is an interesting risk surface for operators. If people are drawn my decentralized model provisioning for its lax censorship, I'm pretty sure they're using it to generate things that I don't want to be liable for.
If anything, I could imagine dumber and stricter brand-safety style censorship on operator machines.
Others are reporting low demand, eg.: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47789171
A H200 gives you ~4 PFLOPs, which is ~60x at only ~40x price (assuming you can get a Mac Mini at $1000). (Not to mention, BTW, RTX PRO 6000 is ~7x price for ~40x more FLOPs).
Your M4 Mac Mini only has ~20 TFLOPs.
What a time to be alive.
Very smart play to build a platform, get scale, and prove out the software. Then either add a small network fee (this could be on money movement on/off platform), add a higher tier of service for money, and/or just use the proof points to go get access to capital and become an operator in your own pool.
This is essentially the same reason even the best money managers take outside money to start, even if they eventually kick out the investors.
- Elon Musk during Tesla's Autonomy Day in April 2019.
Also they’ve already launched a crypto token, which is a terrible sign.