If AI really is bench marking this well -> just sell it as a complete replacement which you can charge for some insane premium, just has to cost less than the employees...
I was worried before, but this is truly the darkest timeline if this is really what these companies are going for.
The weirdest thing to me is how many working SWEs are actively supporting them in the mission.
If it can replace SWEs, then there's no reason why it can't replace say, a lawyer, or any other job for that matter. If it can't, then SWE is fine. If it can - well, we're all fucked either way.
SWE is unique in that for part of the job it's possible to set up automated verification for correct output - so you can train a model to be better at it. I don't think that exists in law or even most other work.
But before verification, what IS correct output?
I understand SWE process is unique in that there are some automations that verify some inputs and outputs, but this reasoning falls into the same fallacies that we've had before AI era. First one that comes to mind is that 100% code coverage in tests means that software is perfect.
Going from fuzzy under-defined spec to something well defined isn't solved.
Going from well defined spec to verification criteria also isn't.
Once those are in place though, we get https://vinext.io - which from what I understand they largely vibe-coded by using NextJS's test suite.
> First one that comes to mind is that 100% code coverage in tests means that software is perfect
I agree.. but I'm also not sure if software needs to be perfect
Of course this assumes you're in the US, and that further AI advancements either lack the capabilities required to be a threat to humanity, or if they do, the AI stays in the hands of "the good guys" and remains aligned.