> The only leverage NATO would be able to provide the US today would be political.

Not sure what you are saying. NATO provides critical support for the Iran war by allowing the US having military bases in their countries.

Rheinmetall stock is up 1,439% and Saab is up 991% since February 2022. European defense materials companies are ramping up just fine.

It depends whether you believe the paper strength or actual strength. On paper the Russian army was the second most powerful in the world. In practice it's the second most powerful in Ukraine. On paper the US army is the most powerful in the world. In practice they've been brought to a standstill by a third-rate power in the middle east. Before that in Vietnam, Iraq, and by something that's barely a country, Afghanistan. Some years ago I saw a Vietnamese film about the American War in which an NVA officer told his men "kill them and keep killing them until they stop coming". It doesn't matter how many expensive toys you have if the other side is determined to outlast you.

And don't forget who makes up NATO. Would you want to go up against someone like the Finns? Ask any US troops who have trained with them.