Their policies are a grift to funnel money to the right people so that's not surprising.
It's an ugly and wasteful system set up instead of other, simpler measure that were politically unacceptable at the time, like higher VAT, excise duties on all fossil fuels across all industries without exception, including fuel oil for heating and aviation fuel.
Economists as a profession understand extremely well that they have no ability predict the economic future beyond what the futures markets say.