Hacker News Reader

Comment by steveBK123 | Hacker News Reader

Yes, i think the Trump admin has escalated itself into a situation that either involves ground troops or leaving without opening the strait.

The first is bad due to the losses that will be incurred and the difficulty of holding territory.. for unclear strategic reasons (I thought we destroyed their nuclear program last summer / what was the urgency / is this even our war?). The second is bad because the strait was open before this started, so things are worse than starting conditions.

That is not to say Iran is winning. Remember this is not a sports game, and no one needs to win. It is possible, and likely, for everyone to lose (be in a worse position than prior).

View on HN

> either involves ground troops or leaving without opening the strait.

These options are not mutually exclusive.

> That is not to say Iran is winning.

They are though, the US administration has already lost it's patience, their strategic objectives (whatever they might have been have clearly not materialized), the talk about talks may very well be the administration preparing to make a bunch of concessions proclaim victory and walk away.

As it's possible for both parties to lose, a party can win all the battles and lose the war.

Correct - we can send in ground troops and fail to open the strait

In fact, that's the most likely outcome.

It is hard to game out the best scenario here. Wait, it really isn't. We should just stop. Make a deal with Iran, accept egg on our face and step back. Why? Because they are destabilized. They are likely to crumble. If we keep attacking then they stay alive. If we go away then they have to deal with their broken infra and deeply unhappy population. They were on the path until we hit them. Then, like nearly every country ever, it gave their government legitimacy. If we walk away and focus, hard, on helping the gulf nations that we just hurt badly it will stabilize the region and allow them to fall. But that will never happen because we went into this due to ego and we will stay due to ego.

What if Iran escalates when US decides to go? I don’t think US can go without leaving a power vacuum, which, given current forces positioning, would benefit Iran most probably. I don’t see a path to helping Gulf nations, which will pragmatically be inclined to work with Iran as neither of them can leave like US can.

> deeply unhappy population

A counterpoint is that perhaps we may have just radicalized a large portion of that unhappy population

>That is not to say Iran is winning. Remember this is not a sports game, and no one needs to win. It is possible, and likely, for everyone to lose (be in a worse position than prior).

As of right now, Iran looks likely to end the war with permanent control of the strait of Hormutz. They'll tax the gulf countries in perpetuity.

Gulf countries can't reasonably afford to go to war with Iran over this either, and it's even less likely that they could prevail in such a conflict. Gulf countries can't even afford to go to war with Iran now, with the US actively fighting there.

Iran can suffer terrible short-term and medium-term economic consequences while still establishing a whole new kind of dominance over the region.

>"That is not to say Iran is winning"

This will sure warm one's heart when that one can no longer afford things.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com