The article just promotes an ignorant sort of racial understanding while missing the really curious relationship between agriculture and his campaigns.
Obama's secret weapon has been Iowa.
Roosevelt,Truman,Eisenhower,Johnson,Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,BushII all had plenty of time to plan for 2nd term.
Of course so did Ford, Carter and Bush I.
There may not be enough samples to get a good p-value, but more often than not the recipe of "just don't mess up too bad" gets a another term for a sitting President.
If you ever go to Iowa, you won't see many people likely to vote for Obama on the basis of racial affinity.
I grew up in L.A., came to Iowa for college and stayed. Am now in my late 30's. Was not affiliated with any party when I caucused for Obama the first go 'round.
Iowa is an interesting political crossroads for the nation. We have a large percentage of the population above 65 - 15% (http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-09.pdf) - and still rural - 36% as of 2010 (http://www.iowadatacenter.org/quickfacts). We are somewhat socially liberal - gay rights are making headway here - and fiscally conservative - our state sales tax is 6%.
Our racial makeup is predominantly caucasian, but we have been welcoming minorities and they are on the increase. Hispanic, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbians, Chinese, Ethiopians, etc continue to migrate here and are well represented at my children's school.
Where am I going with this? Iowans as a whole are hardworking people who are very giving of their time and want what's best for the country. We are accepting of others opinions and able to hold rational political discussions. And I think most of us are sick of gridlock in Washington and can see through the political BS (for example, all the posturing during the last round of federal budgeting). The older registered Republicans I've talked with over the last couple of years have told me they can see that Obama has been trying to work with Republican politicians, and it's not his fault things aren't getting done. That's why we re-elected him.
I think Iowa does a good job of being at the center of the U.S., both geographically and politically.
Based on this everything else you mentioned about Iowa, it seems like it would be a great state for third party candidates to try to upset the two party balance.
Hollande beating Sarckozy in France recently would be a pretty solid counter example, similarly John Major winning in the UK in 1992 (Kinnock was no Kennedy but next to Major anyone looks charismatic).
-Emmett "Doc" Brown
That awkward kiss between Al and Tipper also comes to mind.