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Comment by adjejmxbdjdn | Hacker News Reader

I’m not disagreeing with you, but consumer RAM prices are lagging indicators. If commercial RAM prices are dropping then consumers will see those price drops last, especially given the fact that several consumer manufacturers turned to commercial only.

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Is there a source that says commercial RAM prices are dropping? I was recently told (without a source, so I am not sure if it is true or not) that OpenAI never even bought any of the RAM they signed deals on last year, and that those deals were just letters of intent. So if prices are coming down I wouldn't be shocked but the economy is pretty well vibe coded these days so who even knows.

Well, all manufacturers of ram have publicly stated that they're sold out for 2026

RAM prices falling during 2026 is insanely unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech

I'm not seeing that in 2026. Maybe 2027 (I'd sincerely doubt that too, honestly), but definitely not within the next 9 months. Their runway is _way_ too large for things to spiral out of control within such a short period of time

> unlikely unless AI crashes so hard it starts to actually kill companies. And not just any but big tech. I'm not seeing that in 2026

A month ago AI crash we looking unlikely but with the strait of Hormuz being de-facto blocked many predict a global stagflation which could affect AI too.

If the claims the GP made about letters of intent to buy vs actual purchases are true, that brings additional questions. Like, if you send a letter of intent but do not follow through, are there financial penalties? How hard is it for the chip maker to sell the chips allotted based on that letter of intent? Would someone like Apple buy up the extra, or would they not need it as they've already bought enough for the units they expect to sell? If someone like Apple suddenly had an influx of RAM, that does not mean they would have extra CPU capacity to match. If the supply chain is this closely apportioned, what is the most likely result of a sudden surplus?

If the spot market for RAM is reasonably efficient, prices should be about as likely to fall as to increase further.

Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell.

(All of this is modulo interest rates etc to finance this.)

> Otherwise you could make a surefire profit by just buying some RAM and waiting a few months to re-sell.

Yes, that's why scalping is so widespread right now, because that's essentially what it is

And all morality aside: people will scalp ever harder, until prices are as likely to go down as up.

That's not just RAM, but pretty much any commodity or financial instrument.

here you go: https://x.com/wccftech/status/2037921057097892018

Ram prices are dropping

Every response to the original post calls it out as being factually incorrect...

Nope https://x.com/rdd147/status/2038383801307639960

And one more: https://x.com/AGCast4/status/2038638898151383519

If they see them. Plenty of businesses are still charging pandemic prices for all kinds of goods and simply pocketing the difference.

Cars come to mind instantly. Prices exploded in 2020/1, due to legitimate shortages, most of which have been plus or minus resolved, but the prices for new (and used!) cars never came back down.

While the pandemic chip shortage resolved around 2024, a new chip shortage started in 2025 when the Dutch government took control of Nexperia (who are owned by China's Wingtech) and China retaliated by creating export restrictions. Honda, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and others cut production. With less inventory, manufacturers and dealers are raising prices to compensate.

Also the cost of shipping never came down and lots of cars and/or their components need to cross oceans. Plus we have a new energy crisis...

Actually the prices for new cars seem to be now lower than in 2022 where I live in Europe. Though this could be attributed as well to the competition from Chinese manufacturers.

Why would they be lagging?

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