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Comment by diath | Hacker News Reader

You can see for yourself if anything is passing: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.7/cente...

A small number of ships are crossing with AIS off (and without the benefit of GPS, because it is jammed) by coordinating with Iran. For example: https://gcaptain.com/iranian-navy-guided-indian-tanker-throu.... These will not show up on Marine Traffic as they are transiting the strait.

Wonder why US doesn’t spam the strait with fake AIS signals. Do Iranians have capability to spot ships in dark at night? If they employ radar - why not geolocate radar stations? Is there other techniques Iranians have for spotting ships (EW, SAR, etc)?

If Shaheds use Starlink - how come SpaceX can’t geolocate the launch sites?

I've seen reports of ship turning off their AIS before attempting the strait, not sure if this is still valid but Marine Traffic only shows AIS signals that are turned on, which is as simple as flipping a switch.

Also something Chinese fishing ships do around the galapagos and other regions to fish illegally.

As others have mentioned, that's simply not going to tell you anything. AIS can and is often times turned off in such situations and it ships can spoof their location by sending false AIS... something that situations like could encourage, at least one could well imagine.

I find Sal Mercogliano's "What's Going on With Shipping?" to be a better source to understanding what's happening in the Strait. Here's a link to yesterday's episode "Strait of Hormuz 3-Week Recap | What is the Status of the Ships, Transits and Escort Mission?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q64cOs7GN_4

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4geg0eeyjeo

> Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the strait each day according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, carrying one fifth of the global oil supply.

> The data provided by shipping analysts Kpler shows 99 vessels passing the narrow strait so far this month, an average of just 5-6 vessels a day.

I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. The threat isn't coming from mines anyway.

https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html

> I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield.

That's not clear. Mines are generally concealed. It's the reason that mine-sweeping is slow and dangerous.

And there's no public information (AFAIK) that let's us rule out mines having been, or even currently being, laid.

The risk of being targeted by missiles or drones works just as well. There is a reason NATO has to patrol the Red Sea with warships.

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