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Having been involved in some political campaigns and movements, I totally believe that nobody knows the ROI on where the dollars are going.

This is the mainstream view in political science/economics, since well designed studies consistently show these results.

I won't spend hours chasing down such studies. If you're interested, ask an AI for references!

Donating to the winner means you're on good terms with the future holder of power. This "works" in the sense that you can expect favors in return, but this is just lowkey corruption, not affecting the election result.

Note that candidates who are guaranteed to win often get substantial donations!

Political campaigns certainly need money, but there are heavily diminishing returns pretty quickly. In races where all the candidates have money just throwing more in doesnt seem to accomplish much.