The current price for crude oil does not correctly price in either:

- things end in the next 2-3 weeks and then get back to normal

- this goes on past 6-8 weeks, and stockpiles run out

The first would argue for a modest price increase, the second a somewhat unpredictable, but very severe price increase with hard to understand second order impacts.

So, the price is some weighted version of these two, based on traders estimates of what is most likely. And of course, these estimates can change quickly as events unfold, which is why the price can move so fast, despite no immediate impact to supply "on the ground".

Whoa hold your brush. US admin agency over wars that affect oil prices was very different in 2022 compared to 2026.

IIRC the cost of gas during the Biden era were driven largely by factors outside of our control - the pandemic, supply issues, Russia invading Ukraine, etc. This is a war of choice directly caused by the very deliberate actions we took in the middle east. There is a very clear cause and effect to point to here, much like the Iraq war in the early 2000s raising gas prices.