I think this theory deserves its own blog post, with a bit more detail.
I am not sure I follow the unpayable debt -> civil unrest step of the argument.
I think the overall theory is probably a stretch, but I think you're really onto something.
For one thing, the creation of massive federal police a la DHS and TSA is extremely scary to me, and something people should be paying more attention to.
For example, hypothetically, what would signifiy the "tipping point" where those with means to do so, should flee the country? Probably the elimintation of free speech, but what if it's too late by then? Take note that "liberals" are already demanding the beginning of the end of free speech under the guise of "campaign finance reform."
Another thing people should be paying more attention to is figuring out the effect of the debt spiral and continual inflation (presumably quantitative easing will continue indefinitely). At what point should I convert all USD holdings to other things? And should those other things include, say, domestic real estate, or should they be only gold (and bitcoin :) )? The answer to that would depend on the earlier "tipping point" thing.
To those who think this is all a meaningless rant: Protection of individual rights (the Constitution) has been eroding for centuries, which is reaching its culmination, and the US is reapidly becoming a police state. Wake up.