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If they are actually "exactly the same" and your criteria is a "random" developer then does it matter which you pick? Look for extracurriculars like active github, personal website/blog, open source contributions, vibe coding skills, etc. I bet 75% of the job market right now is being done on referrals anyway. Tap your network.

Keep raising the bar until all but 20 are excluded.

That’s not enough.

Surely you will not manage to hire one of the top 20 developers matching any given criterion unless you are paying too 1% compensation. (I made this number up.)

One of the criteria somehow is “will show up for work and not ghost us”.

They applied for the job, so there’s at least some signal that they’d be willing to work there.

If you're truly looking this generic, then what is the problem exactly with taking the bottom 20% of the stack since that's what your pay is going to be anyway?

In any second tier city the range for mid range developers is only $10K-$20K. You don’t really need rockstar ninja developers to do your standard CRUD LOB or SaaS app.