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> They can absolutely parse things and follow me across IDs to put me in a big log

So, VPNs do not protect against surveillance. Both of us agree.

> some data magic

The EU e-Evidence Regulation requires this of EU & EFTA based providers. Make what you will.

According to Mullvad they do not keep logs, so whatever data they can be compelled to give up should include very little.

That's not going to matter if the regulation, like the one linked to above, explicitly requires a proxy provider to preserve data.