Wait, am I reading this wrong. The producer and importer try to soften the impact of the tarrifs only for the retailer to massively increase their prices?
The BBB tax cuts benefit the wealthy much more than the average person. The tariffs are borne by both the wealthy and by the average person when they buy tariffed goods, but those tariffs are easily absorbed by the wealthy while acting as an additional tax on the average person by increasing prices. This is just about as direct a transfer of wealth from the average person to the wealthy as you could possibly put into place (barring an actual transfer where the average person is taxed and those dollars are literally transferred directly into a wealthy person's bank account).
In a way, it's a genius move. Convince a healthy chunk of the US population that you're on a populist crusade to bring jobs back to America while increasing the wealth of the wealthy and taking even more of the average person's income. Don't forget that the reason the jobs were exported in the first place was to decrease costs so that, you guessed it, wealthy people would get wealthier (but at least in that scenario the cost of a tv went way down, am I right???).
All that said, I don't mean to suggest that bringing jobs back isn't actually a goal. It's just not the primary goal. My take on the priorities of the current admin's tax policy, including the tariffs (which, broken record, are taxes) 1. decrease taxes on the wealthy 2. decrease income taxes on everyone else who pays taxes 3. get "everyone else who pays taxes" to fund the decreased taxes on the wealthy 4. bring jobs back. Somewhere in there is also "create a mechanism for opaque profiteering." I'm not quite sure where that falls on the list. Cynically it's probably number 2.
I can share my own experience as a small business owner. I sell coffee. I engage in some direct trade and also buy some coffee from domestic vendors who already have the coffee stateside.
I primarily buy Costa Rican coffee and they got hit with a 10% tariff. That adds like 5 cents to a latte. Whatever. I’m not raising my prices over that. But then Brazil got nailed with much higher tariffs and they are the #1 exporter. Colombia was another one that got hit with high tariffs and they are a major producer. Suddenly, that was driving up the cost of my Costa Rican coffee as demand that was previously met by Brazil and Colombia shifted to other countries. I went from being the exclusive U.S. importer of my coffee to being in a bidding war. The last time I imported coffee, it cost me twice as much as the shipment prior. Then they tried to raise the price again. I ended up having to find new suppliers before things eventually settled down when the people in charge realized you can’t produce coffee in the U.S. (Technically, Hawaii produces exorbitantly priced coffee at a max capacity that amounts to a rounding error relative to domestic demand. There’s no other place in the U.S. with the climate to grow coffee. Besides, it’s incredibly labor intensive. Coffee essentially can’t be produced here.)
Cups were a real pain in the ass too. We were buying our stuff from the Dominican Republic and Latin America, but people are mostly getting that stuff from China. When China became prohibitively expensive, everyone rushed to find other suppliers. That drove prices up and messed up lead times in the short term. The story with most packaging was the same.
Literally every single item required for my business increased in price. It turns out nobody produces anything 100% domestically without any foreign input. My syrups are made in the USA but the bottles they come in are from somewhere else. My empanada shells come from Argentina. Everything from chocolate to pistachios to straws and cleaning supplies. Everything is a product of global trade, whether it’s ingredients, raw materials, packaging, or the machinery and tools used to manufacture it. To maintain my own equipment, I have to buy parts from Italy.
I held out for several months. I was feeling it as a business owner as well as every time I went to the store. I knew my customers were feeling it. I live in the neighborhood where my business is located. A lot of my customers are retirees on a fixed income. The last thing I want to do is add to the pressure. Meanwhile, I have employees who deserve a living wage. I have my own needs. I dumped some products and suppliers that became too expensive for me to sell and have any remaining dignity. I saved everywhere I could without compromising on quality.
About 7 months into this bullshit I had to raise prices for most of my products. It couldn’t be helped. Still, I’m embarrassed at how much we have to charge for some items.
I feel like the last year has been complete chaos. It’s economic shocks and supply chain disruptions everywhere I look. It’s just one thing after another and that’s before I even turn on the news.
That's classic "prices are sticky behavior". Prices change less often, and by more, than they would in a classical economics model.
In this case, it ended up that the retailer raised prices, probably because the retailer can just sell domestic wine for cheaper (close substitute). Retailer profits still didn't increase because of reductions in sales (~12% iirc) and increase in after-tariff inventory prices. This is textbook econ 101. Substitute, profit maximization of a firm, supply and demand etc.
You're confusing exporter and importer lowering prices with the retailer facing lower after-tariff inventory costs. Inventory costs still went up.
Prices only go up, all that's required is a plausible excuse.
This is what happens when you shape your entire individual and cultural identity around "number go up"
Taxes make after tax prices go up and reduce profits due to reduced quantity.
No reason to go searching for a "plausible excuse" or some greater critique of culture.
(I've no doubt the supply chain was a mess for a hot minute, but years later?)
examples include eggs for $2.99 in some places (!), and other competitive categories like unbranded meat and cheese, pasta, and more.
prepared foods seem to be slower, I'm assuming because labor costs continue to rise.
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-...
> What's the item? Groceries
> How has the price changed since before the pandemic?
> Up 29% since February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The statistic you cite does not necessarily contradict what the parent comment is saying. "Up 29% since February 2020" is an absolute change since a specific point. The parent comment is saying prices have "come down" i.e. since their peak. It can still be up overall, so long as it's not up as high as it was at one point.
EDIT: To be clear, the parent comment might still be wrong, or might be right only within a biased sample (i.e. their own experience). I'm only making the point that the statistic you're referencing does not outright disprove what they're saying. Prices can be up since six years ago AND down since two years ago (random time periods chosen for illustration only).
At no point has the US entered deflation so far this millennium.
https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/economics/deflation
Of course this is talking about the overall price level. The prices in specific sectors can fluctuate independently of that. Food and energy in particular are excluded from core inflation because they're especially volatile.
I also have anecdata, my grocery bill has not come down from pandemic times. Things like eggs are definitely more expensive.
Just like food prices didn't just jump one day, they won't just drop one day. We target 2% inflation, so they'll still go up, but slower.
Going up slower than wages means better affordability.
[0] https://collabfund.com/blog/the-fed-isnt-printing-as-much-mo...
The money printer was also going brr. And that is probably the cause for some of the inflation.
So if retailers tried to lower prices to pre-COVID levels then they would fail. The Fed would see the falling prices and cut rates until 2% inflation was achieved.