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Comment by rayiner | Hacker News Reader

What's missing here is the complex network of alliances that led to WWI. The Iranian regime has alienated virtually everyone, including many of its Muslim neighbors. Nor is the regime part of some overarching international movement, like the communist countries were. Who is going to lift a finger to help Iran?

I'm not supportive of these strikes. Iranians created this government, and if they want to topple it they'll have to be the ones to do it, without foreign intervention.

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> I'm not supportive of these strikes. Iranians created this government, and if they want to topple it they'll have to be the ones to do it, without foreign intervention.

Well, foreign intervention kind of worked in Syria, Libya and Iraq after a few backstops, didn't it? All three countries reduced to rubble and virtually eliminated as threats to the US and Israel. Iran is next on the list, now that they're close to obtaing nukes. Let's not kid ourselves, they're not doing it for the Iranians, the're doing it for themselves. Regime change on their own terms, or if that isn't possible, yet another civil war.

If they were meaningful threats to the U.S. it would be legitimate to eliminate them, without regard to Iranian sovereignty. It’s not clear to me that was true.

They're an existential threat to Israel and it also puts China's oil suppply chain under pressure as a bonus. Also, the US does absolutely not want them to get nukes. The regime is at its lowest popularity, so obviously this is the time to try and topple it. The problem is that it creates a power void ripe for terrorist factions to flourish in, as it was the case in Syria and Iraq.

Iran has been at war with the US since 1979.

No, the US has been at war with Iran since 1953

The US spent trillions of dollars, 20 years and countless lives in Iraq and has nothing to show for it.

Interestingly Iran had moderately good relations with Russia, to whom they sold drones, and China, to whom they sold oil. But indeed not enough for either to help defend Iran.

With Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, the US is bottling up Russian and Chinese global influence into smaller regional influence.

Indeed. The Gulf states didn’t want to get involved in this war for fear of upsetting local groups, but after the attacks have now jumped on board.

Iran basically has no state allies in the Middle East. Russia and China don’t seem any more committed than just arms sales.

What potential problem is upsetting the ethnic Apple cart in the region. We know countries like Iraq are a mix of Sunni and Shia with Iran supporting the Shia side quite significantly.

If the main supporting of Shia in the region (Iran) gets wiped out, Shia in varies countries like Iraq may feel much more vulnerable and make political moves preemptively.

Agreed, nobody is going to help out Iran.

If anyone does it'll be China giving them missiles to hit a US boat.

That would make the US turn tail. Not start a war with China.

As for Iranian leadership, they just need to dig deep and wait this out. I can't imagine they don't have plenty of hardened bunkers.

> If anyone does it'll be China giving them missiles to hit a US boat.

> That would make the US turn tail. Not start a war with China.

The right kind of missiles hitting the right kind of boat could lead to a very grave escalation.

Short of hitting the US mainland.

I doubt there is anything Iran can do that make the US put boots on the ground.

There is no appetite for boots on the ground in the US. And no coalition behind the US.

That scenario has played out before.

Eight hours later Iran's navy was at the bottom of the sea.

And there is no Iranian leadership right now as far as anyone can tell.

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