> I'm going to be honest, you can feel the AGI when you use newer agentic tools like OpenClaw or Claude.

You're right. I can feel how far away it is and how these tools will in no way be capable of getting us there.

Researchers looked at GPT-3 in 2023 and saw “sparks of AGI”. The saying “feel the AGI” became widespread not long after, if I’m remembering right. We’ve been saying AGI is right around the corner for a while now. And of course, if you predict the end of the world every day, you’ll eventually be right. But for the moment, what we have is an exceptionally powerful coding assistant that can also speed up entry-level work in various other white collar industries. That is earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting. But given how competitive and expensive the AI game has become, that is not enough, so it needs to be “superintelligence” - and it’s just not.

It’s amazing that economic analysis can be dismissed by “feeling the AGI”.

You might as well be telling people to “HODL”

Have you ever tried to trick an LLM? Did you have trouble?

What does that mean? By what metric do you measure "AGI", whatever that means? Industry definitions are incredibly vague, perhaps intentionally so, with no benchmarks to define how a model, harness, or other technology might achieve "AGI". They have no intelligence, and can't even reason that you need to take your car to the car wash to have it washed[0].

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47031580

> Superintelligence in 3 years doesn't really sound that crazy given how quickly I can write code with Claude. I mean we're 90%-95% of the way there already.

Yeah? So you must have a clear idea of where "there" is, and of the route from here to there?

Forgive me my skepticism, but I don't believe you. I don't believe that you actually know.