I think it's real and potentially catastrophic. But I see very little chance of (sufficient) coordinated action to mitigate it.
I.e., I think there's too much temptation for individual countries to pursue a competitive economic or military advantage by letting everyone but themselves make sacrifices.
I hope I'm wrong.
Not saying they're above reproach, but their energy policy certainly trumps ours.
How are they doing that, you ask? Switching to coal ... India's adding 80GW of coal, and China having 95GW planned and building.
They're getting most of their new power from solar and running coal only at night.
China's coal usage is relatively flat. They've increased their capacity, but they've been decreasing their capacity factor (aka what percentage of the time the plants are running) at approximately the same rate. They used to run their plants 24/7. Now they run only at night. They've started adding batteries to the grid so in the future the coal plants will only run after a stretch of cloudy days.
Claim is that it's about strategic safety for both countries. Coal is easy, and they have plenty of it (unlike oil, which neither have in any quantity).
Trump, a democrat himself, is simply using the multi-front strategy he already knew.