1 you are massively assuming less than linear improvement, even linear over 5 years puts LLM in different category
2 more efficient means need less people means redundancy means cycle of low demand
2 more efficient means need less people means redundancy means cycle of low demand
That’s exactly the point the rapid rate of improvement is far form slow polish in 10 years it will be everywhere doing everything
So where is the labor force replacement option on Anthropic's website? Dario isn't shy about these enormous claims of replacing humans. He's made the claim yet shows zero proof. But if Anthropic could replace anyone reliably, today why would they let you or I take that revenue? I mean they are the experts, right? The reality is these "improvements" metrics are built in sand. They mean nothing and are marketing. Show me any model replacing a receptionist today. Trivial, they say, yet they can't do it reliably. AND... It costs more at these subsidized prices.
Why is the bar not even lower you ask? Well I guess we could start with replacing lying, narcissistic CEOs.
Despite all the productizing and the benchmark gaming, fundamentally all we got is some low-hanging performance improvements (MoE and such).